During the morning session, the EUR/USD pair is developing the corrective momentum of the beginning of the week, trading at 1.1612. The market activity remains moderate, as at 20:00 (GMT+2), investors await the results of the US Fed meeting on monetary policy.

The probability of a decrease remains.

On the daily chart, an upward third wave of the higher degree 3 of (A) is developing, within which the first wave of the lower degree i of 3 has likely been completed, followed by a corrective movement forming the second wave ii of 3. On the four-hour chart, wave (c) of ii is forming, and wave iii of (c) is also developing. If this scenario proves correct, the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue toward the 1.1200–1.0990 area, with the critical stop loss level for this scenario at 1.1694.

The euro is consolidating around 1.1618 following last week’s upward trend, while investors assess macroeconomic data releases and the outcome of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting, during which policymakers signalled their readiness to further tighten monetary policy amid rising inflation risks associated with the prolonged Middle East crisis.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1545, awaiting the decision on the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) today at 14:15 (GMT+2).