The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1354, below the March low of 1.1410 due to the strengthening of the American dollar and poor EU macroeconomic statistics.

The European currency is developing “bearish” momentum, holding near 1.1364 during the Asian session, while investors are analysing the results of the first round of negotiations between the US and Iran, which may end with the signing of a final peace agreement.

During the morning session, the EUR/USD pair is developing a “bearish” momentum in the ultra-short term, testing 1.1420 for a breakdown around the lows from March 16.

The probability of a decrease remains.

On the daily chart, an upward third wave of the higher degree 3 of (A) is developing, within which the first wave of the lower degree i of 3 has likely been completed, followed by a corrective movement forming the second wave ii of 3. On the four-hour chart, wave (c) of ii is forming, and wave iii of (c) is also developing. If this scenario proves correct, the downward trend of the EUR/USD pair is expected to continue toward the 1.1200–1.0990 area, with the critical stop loss level for this scenario at 1.1625.

Against the strengthening American dollar, the EUR/USD pair is moving in a correction trend, trading at 1.148 in anticipation of the signing of a framework agreement on ending the Middle East conflict by US and Iranian representatives in Switzerland on Friday.