The probability of growth remains.

On the daily chart, the correction forming the second wave of the senior level (2) has completed, and the ascending third wave (3) is being built. On the 4-hour timeframe, the initial entry wave of a lower-degree wave i of 1 of (3) is unfolding, within which wave (v) of i is forming. If this scenario proves correct, the USD/CAD pair’s upward trend is expected to continue toward the 1.4132–1.4400 zone, with a critical stop loss level at 1.3896.

On the four-hour chart, the instrument remains within a long-term uptrend, trading near 1.3987. Meanwhile, one of the key support levels at 1.3929 has already formed a Hammer reversal pattern, signalling a potential trend reversal, while the Inverted Hammer formation confirms the “bullish” bias. 

Last week, the USD/CAD pair renewed the March high of 1.3950. Today, it is attempting to consolidate above it to continue growing towards 1.4130, supported by the differential between the US Fed’s interest rate at 3.50–3.75% range, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate at 2.25%. The yield of the American dollar remains higher, limiting the growth of the Canadian currency.

During the morning session, the USD/CAD pair continues the development of the “bullish” trend in the short-term and ultra-short-term perspective, trading at 1.3979.

During the Asian session, the USD/CAD pair is undergoing a corrective move around 1.3949: the outcome of the corporate bond issuance provided some support to the Canadian dollar.

On the daily chart, the USD/CAD pair is steadily rising within a medium-term upward trend. Currently, the price has consolidated above 1.3888 (61.8% correction), reinforced by the 61.8% downwards fan line, allowing it to reach 1.4140 (100.0% correction). However, in case of a breakdown of the Bollinger bands middle line at 1.3733 (38.2% correction, 38.2% downwards fan line), the decline will resume towards the targets of 1.3638 (23.6% correction, Bollinger bands lower line) and 1.3483 (0.0% correction).