The probability of a decrease remains.

On the daily chart, a higher degree wave B is developing, and wave (C) of B is forming. Meanwhile, on the four-hour chart, the fifth wave of the lower degree, wave 5 of (C), is developing, within which wave iii of 5 is forming. If this scenario proves correct, the NZD/USD pair’s upward trend is expected to continue toward the 0.5400–0.5000 zone with a critical stop loss at 0.5994.

The NZD/USD pair has been declining since the beginning of June and is now at 0.5676 (Murrey [1/8]) around four-month lows: the US currency is strengthening against the growing probability of the tightening of the US Fed’s monetary policy this year.

During the morning session, the NZD/USD pair is testing 0.5725 on a breakdown, refreshing the lows from April 8 under pressure from the outcomes of the US Fed monetary policy meeting.

During the Asian session, the NZD/USD pair is correcting around 0.5733.

Despite signs of a weakening economy in New Zealand, the NZD/USD pair is preparing to continue moving downwards to a monthly low around 0.5827.